Analysts Forecast 20% + August Software Growth

Ahead of the release of the NPD Group’s August US videogame retail sales data, analysts from Wedbush Morgan, Lazard Capital Markets and Electronic Entertainment Design and Research have predicted a bumper month for software but a decline in hardware sell-through.

For the four week period ended August 30, Wedbush Morgan’s Michael Pachter expects software sales to hit $600 million, up 23 percent on August 2007’s total of $489 million. New releases Madden NFL 09, Too Human and Mario Super Sluggers are expected to have driven the growth, alongside continued sales of Soul Calibur IV, Wii Fit and Mario Kart Wii.

Lazard’s Colin Sebastian estimates that software sales increased 20 percent in August, attributing the double-digit rise in “the seasonally slower month” to sales of Madden NFL 09, Soul Calibur IV, Wii Fit and solid catalog sales of older releases like Guitar Hero and Rock Band.

EEDAR’s Jesse Divnich expects game sales to ring in at $592 million, a 21 percent increase over last year. The analyst cites unit sales of Madden 09 as a contributing factor to the predicted growth.


Each of the analysts predicted a month-over-month decline in hardware unit sales. Wii supply constraints, Sony’s transitioning to the new 80GB PS3, and consumer reluctance to purchase Xbox 360s in anticipation of the console’s September price cut were all cited as reasons for the expected drop in sales.

Wedbush / EEDAR predicted monthly hardware unit sales. Lazard did not.

DS: 550,000 / 551,000
Wii: 550,000 / 505,000
PS3: 225,000 / 201,000
360: 200,000 / 187,000
PSP 200,000 / 211,000
PS2: 150,000 / n/a

The NPD Group is expected to release its August US videogame retail sales data after market close on Thursday, September 11
via Edge

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